South Fork Trail via Dollar Lake Saddle

Wednesday, Oct 14: Mountaineering. Crampons, ice axe, helmet.

Old Greyback, 11,503 ft. San Bernardino Mountains, San Bernardino National Forest. Updated 6 min ago.

High Wind Warning issued October 14 at 11:16AM PDT until October 16 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS San Diego CAA warning from the National Weather Service. Read it

StormIceWindColdNew snowa reasoncautionnot a factorTap a day or a symbol for why.

Why today is Mountaineering

Storm (not a factor)
No storm on the mountain in the forecast.
Ice (a reason)
South Fork Meadows up to Dollar Lake Saddle: Refrozen crust, hard and icy until it softens around 10,000 ft. Steep and icy: a slip may not stop.
Wind (caution)
Gusts up to 35 mph near the top. 25 to 40 mph: gusty on exposed ridges.
Cold (caution)
Feels like 16 °F at the top with the wind. 16 to 25 °F: cold, bring warm layers and gloves.
New snow (caution)
1.6 in in 3 days. 1 to 6 inches.

What we've seen between 8,000 and 9,500 ft: no snow (high confidence together)

NOAA's snow map: 0 in at 12 points (Oct 13)medium
Satellite, 250 m: bare at 44 trail points (Oct 12)medium
Satellite, 250 m: bare at 115 trail points (Oct 13)medium

1 person has died on these routes in conditions like today'sShow

April 12, 2014. Sky High Trail, three miles east of San Gorgonio PeakA 49-year-old San Diego man slipped and fell on ice-covered slopes while hiking the Sky High Trail. He was flown to Loma Linda University Medical Center and died in the emergency room.Like today: hard ice after thaw and freezeThat daygusts 32 mph, wind chill 11 °F, 0 in of rain in the 3 days beforetodaygusts 35 mph, wind chill 16 °F, 0 in of rain in the 3 days before1 source, one source so far. Read the report
Rescuers say what helps: crampons, not microspikes; an ice axe and knowing how to self-arrest; a helmet; not going in a storm; turning around. On the worst ice, even crampons have not been enough.
"That day" is from historical weather records, which average over a wide area: they read summit gusts low, so the real wind was likely stronger.

The mountain and your route

UpDown

UpDownSomeone has died here in these conditions1Hiker photoFrom the south: the highest ground at each point across. Routes at their real position and height.

The risks, near the summit

IceExtremeHard snow or ice on steep parts

WindVery highGusts to 35 mph

ColdHighFeels like 16 °F

New snowModerate1.6 in in 3 days

AvalancheNo forecastNo avalanche center covers Southern California.

Photos from hikers, last 14 days

No photos from hikers yet. Been up recently? A photo and a few words help the next person decide.

From hikers; we check words and photos, not the conditions. The older a photo, the less it tells you; a storm since then changes everything.

From space, last 5 days

Satellite pictures with the trails drawn on. Tap a day to see how the mountain changed.

Satellite picture of the mountain, Tuesday, October 13, with the trails drawn on. Snow seen from about 11,300 ft up, on all 3 trails. — Snow seen from about 11,300 ft up, on all 3 trails.
NASA Terra satellite, about 250 m to a pixel: blurry, but every day.

Trails (yours thicker)
Snow seen
Summit, 11,503 ft

Satellites see snow, not ice: thin ice on rock, and snow in deep shade or under trees, don't show. A daily picture is blurry; a sharp one comes every few days.

How we worked it out, at the summit

	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
Already there	1″	1.8″	2.8″	2.3″	1.5″	1.1″
+ New snow	+1.6″	+1.6″	–	–	–	+0.1″
− Melted	−0.4″	–	–	−0.5″	−0.3″	−0.9″
− Settled	−0.4″	−0.6″	−0.5″	−0.3″	−0.1″	−0.1″
= On the ground	1.8″	2.8″	2.3″	1.5″	1.1″	0.2″
Rain	2.15″	–	–	–	–	–
Low / high	25° / 36°	21° / 28°	23° / 32°	23° / 42°	27° / 39°	25° / 43°
Gusts (mph)	46	46	49	39	41	43
Froze to crust	yes	yes	yes	–	yes	–
Hiker reports	–	–	–	–	–	–

Before Sun: 1″ on the ground at the summit (the model runs from October 1). When hikers report, their reports show in the last row and beat the model for that spot.

National Weather Service + Open-Meteo, corrected to the summit's height. We count 90% of the melt we calculate. Faded days are forecast.

What each forecast says at the summit

Forecast	Low	Gusts	Air wind
National Weather Servicein the estimate	34°F	35	–
Open-Meteo blendin the estimate	29°F	35	33
NOAA HRRR (3 km)being tested	29°F	35	33
ECMWFbeing tested	26°F	32	26

The summit low differs by 8 °F between forecasts (26 to 34 °F). The estimate leans to the colder.

Wind in mph, water in inches; "Air wind" is the wind in the air at the summit's height. The estimate on this page uses the National Weather Service and Open-Meteo. NOAA's HRRR and ECMWF are being tested alongside it before they're added. How we combine forecasts

Your times

StartBack by

Turn around by

Wherever you are then, head down. Sunrise 6:50 AM, sunset 6:15 PM.

Mountaineering

Doable to 8,190 ft in hiking gear. Above that, a mountaineering route: crampons, ice axe, helmet, and the skill to use them.

Your pack

0 of 8 ticked. Tap what's in your pack.

We do not recommend going above 8,190 ft today. Still missing: crampons, ice axe, helmet, I know how to self-arrest. Without these, turn around at 8,190 ft.

3.2 in of snow fell at the summit in the last 3 days; 2.2 in of rain fell there in the last 3 days (measured by radar and rain gauges); about 0.1 in of snow is forecast in the next 2 days; wet snow or rain freezes overnight into a hard, icy surface. No snow seen between about 8,000 and 9,500 ft since it last snowed: NOAA's snow map and satellite, 250 m agree (high confidence).

Check these before you go

Each one opens in a new tab and ticks off here. 0 of 9 checked.

Tell someone your plan

Start 7:00 AM, turn around by 1:00 PM, back by 4:00 PM. Change them in Your times.

The link opens this page with your day, routes and times, so they see exactly what you planned.

What this estimate can't see

This is a model, not an observation. A 1 °C error moves the snow line about 500 ft.
It cannot see one shaded chute or a boot-packed icy track. Treat any shade as icier than shown.
After the first storms of the season, thin ice on rock is common and hard to see. We lean on the side of more gear.

Model 1.2.2. National Weather Service grid SGX 79,72, fetched 6 min ago; Open-Meteo, fetched 6 min ago. How it works

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Support Hike Conditions

Conditions that have killed hikers on these peaks

On San Gorgonio today, this one is expected on your route. The number is how many people died in each, on the mountains this site covers, 1958 to 2025, from news and rescue reports.

29Hard ice after thaw and freeze, on steep groundSnow melts by day and freezes at night for 2 to 3 days. The most common killer on these peaks.Crampons, not just microspikes, an ice axe, a helmet, and the training to use them. On the worst days even crampons have not been enough: avoid the slope.

Trails on San Gorgonio

Vivian Creek Trail 8.85 mi from Vivian Creek trailhead
South Fork Trail via Dollar Lake Saddle 9.47 mi from South Fork trailhead
South Fork Trail via Dry Lake and Sky High 10.94 mi from South Fork trailhead

San Gorgonio: questions hikers ask

Is there snow or ice on San Gorgonio right now?

Ice or hard snow likely above about 10,000 ft. On "High Creek Camp up the ridge to the junction on the divide (11,240 ft)" that means crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them. Without them, turn around below 9,250 ft. Estimate from Wed, Oct 14, 6:08 PM, updated every hour. Each trail section's estimate is on this page.

Is San Gorgonio open for hiking?

We found no Forest Service closure naming San Gorgonio's trails as of Wed, Oct 14, 6:08 PM. Closures can be posted any time, so check the forest's alerts page (https://www.fs.usda.gov/r05/sanbernardino/alerts) before you go. The National Weather Service has an active alert: High Wind Warning: High Wind Warning issued October 14 at 11:16AM PDT until October 16 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS San Diego CA.

What gear do I need for San Gorgonio today?

Today: crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them.

When are conditions on San Gorgonio worst this week?

Today (mountaineering): Ice or hard snow likely above about 10,000 ft. On "High Creek Camp up the ridge to the junction on the divide (11,240 ft)" that means crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them. Without them, turn around below 9,250 ft.

How accurate is this San Gorgonio conditions estimate?

It's an estimate from National Weather Service and Open-Meteo forecasts, the shape of the land, and hikers' photos, not someone standing on the trail. A 1 °C error moves the snow line about 500 ft, and shaded gullies stay icy longer than any model shows. If the mountain looks worse than this page, believe the mountain.