Icehouse Canyon to Baldy (Three Ts)

Wednesday, Oct 14: Mountaineering. Crampons, ice axe, helmet, gusts 41 mph.

Mt San Antonio, 10,064 ft. San Gabriel Mountains, Angeles National Forest. Updated 4 min ago.

Red Flag Warning issued October 14 at 3:37PM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CAA warning from the National Weather Service. Read it

High Wind Warning issued October 14 at 11:38AM PDT until October 16 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CAA warning from the National Weather Service. Read it

StormIceWindColdNew snowa reasoncautionnot a factorTap a day or a symbol for why.

Why today is Mountaineering

Storm (not a factor)
No storm on the mountain in the forecast.
Ice (a reason)
Harwood saddle to the summit: Refrozen crust, hard and icy until it softens around 10,064 ft. Steep and icy: a slip may not stop.
Wind (a reason)
Gusts up to 41 mph near the top. That's 40 mph or more: hard to keep your footing on exposed ridges.
Cold (caution)
Feels like 19 °F at the top with the wind. 16 to 25 °F: cold, bring warm layers and gloves.
New snow (caution)
2.6 in in 3 days. 1 to 6 inches.

What we've seen between 6,000 and 10,000 ft: no snow (high confidence together)

NOAA's snow map: 0 in at 39 points (Oct 13)medium
Satellite, 250 m: bare at 356 trail points (Oct 13)medium

2 people have died on these routes in conditions like today'sShow

February 20, 2016. North-facing side of Mt. Harwood, just east of Mt. Baldy, near the Devil's Backbone trail; 'very narrow, steep ice chute'A 45-year-old San Diego man slipped from the Devil's Backbone trail and fell about 1,000–1,500 ft down a steep ice chute on the north side of Mt. Harwood; he was flown to Arrowhead Regional Medical Center and pronounced dead.Like today: hard ice after thaw and freezeThat daygusts 13 mph, wind chill 15 °F, 0.66 in of rain in the 3 days beforetodaygusts 41 mph, wind chill 19 °F, 0 in of rain in the 3 days before6 sources, verified. Read the report
December 4, 2010. Fish Fork drainage, northwest of the summit; steep, ice-covered slope at about 7,900 ft, more than 2,100 ft below the summitA 49-year-old experienced hiker set out alone, likely reached the summit, and fell into the icy Fish Fork drainage on the north side. Her body was spotted from a helicopter on 8 December; the autopsy found multiple blunt injuries from a fall.Like today: hard ice after thaw and freezeThat daygusts 14 mph, wind chill 17 °F, 0 in of rain in the 3 days beforetodaygusts 41 mph, wind chill 19 °F, 0 in of rain in the 3 days before7 sources, verified. Read the report
Rescuers say what helps: crampons, not microspikes; an ice axe and knowing how to self-arrest; a helmet; not going in a storm; turning around. On the worst ice, even crampons have not been enough.
"That day" is from historical weather records, which average over a wide area: they read summit gusts low, so the real wind was likely stronger.

The mountain and your route

UpDown

UpDownSomeone has died here in these conditions1Hiker photoFrom the south: the highest ground at each point across. Routes at their real position and height.

The risks, near the summit

IceExtremeHard snow or ice on steep parts

WindVery highGusts to 41 mph

ColdHighFeels like 19 °F

New snowHigh2.6 in in 3 days

AvalancheNo forecastNo avalanche center covers Southern California. New snow and wind: avoid steep open slopes like Baldy Bowl.

Photos from hikers, last 14 days

No photos from hikers yet. Been up recently? A photo and a few words help the next person decide.

From hikers; we check words and photos, not the conditions. The older a photo, the less it tells you; a storm since then changes everything.

From space, last 5 days

Satellite pictures with the trails drawn on. Tap a day to see how the mountain changed.

Satellite picture of the mountain, Tuesday, October 13, with the trails drawn on. No snow seen on the trails. — No snow seen on the trails.
NASA Terra satellite, about 250 m to a pixel: blurry, but every day.

Trails (yours thicker)
Summit, 10,064 ft

Satellites see snow, not ice: thin ice on rock, and snow in deep shade or under trees, don't show. A daily picture is blurry; a sharp one comes every few days.

How we worked it out, at the summit

	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
Already there	0″	0.2″	2.3″	1.7″	0.5″	0″
+ New snow	+0.4″	+2.6″	–	–	–	–
− Melted	−0.1″	–	–	−1″	−0.4″	–
− Settled	−0.1″	−0.5″	−0.6″	−0.2″	−0.1″	–
= On the ground	0.2″	2.3″	1.7″	0.5″	0″	0″
Rain	1.85″	–	–	–	–	–
Low / high	26° / 39°	23° / 28°	23° / 33°	26° / 44°	33° / 43°	29° / 51°
Gusts (mph)	44	39	44	30	46	56
Froze to crust	yes	yes	yes	–	–	–
Hiker reports	–	–	–	–	–	–

Before Sun: 0″ on the ground at the summit (the model runs from October 1). When hikers report, their reports show in the last row and beat the model for that spot.

National Weather Service + Open-Meteo, corrected to the summit's height. We count 90% of the melt we calculate. Faded days are forecast.

What each forecast says at the summit

Forecast	Low	Gusts	Air wind
National Weather Servicein the estimate	35°F	41	–
Open-Meteo blendin the estimate	33°F	37	32
NOAA HRRR (3 km)being tested	33°F	37	32
ECMWFbeing tested	27°F	47	30

The summit low differs by 8 °F between forecasts (27 to 35 °F). The estimate leans to the colder.

Wind in mph, water in inches; "Air wind" is the wind in the air at the summit's height. The estimate on this page uses the National Weather Service and Open-Meteo. NOAA's HRRR and ECMWF are being tested alongside it before they're added. How we combine forecasts

Your times

StartBack by

Turn around by

Wherever you are then, head down. Sunrise 6:54 AM, sunset 6:18 PM.

Mountaineering

Doable to 9,360 ft in hiking gear. Above that, a mountaineering route: crampons, ice axe, helmet, and the skill to use them.

Your pack

0 of 8 ticked. Tap what's in your pack.

We do not recommend going above 9,360 ft today. Still missing: crampons, ice axe, helmet, I know how to self-arrest. Without these, turn around at 9,360 ft.

3 in of snow fell at the summit in the last 3 days; 1.9 in of rain fell there in the last 3 days; wet snow or rain freezes overnight into a hard, icy surface. No snow seen between about 6,000 and 10,000 ft since it last snowed: NOAA's snow map and satellite, 250 m agree (high confidence).

Check these before you go

Each one opens in a new tab and ticks off here. 0 of 10 checked.

Tell someone your plan

Start 7:00 AM, turn around by 1:00 PM, back by 4:00 PM. Change them in Your times.

The link opens this page with your day, routes and times, so they see exactly what you planned.

What this estimate can't see

This is a model, not an observation. A 1 °C error moves the snow line about 500 ft.
It cannot see one shaded chute or a boot-packed icy track. Treat any shade as icier than shown.
After the first storms of the season, thin ice on rock is common and hard to see. We lean on the side of more gear.

Model 1.2.2. National Weather Service grid LOX 178,52, fetched 4 min ago; Open-Meteo, fetched 4 min ago. How it works

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Conditions that have killed hikers on these peaks

On Mt Baldy today, these 2 are expected on your route. The number is how many people died in each, on the mountains this site covers, 1958 to 2025, from news and rescue reports.

29Hard ice after thaw and freeze, on steep groundSnow melts by day and freezes at night for 2 to 3 days. The most common killer on these peaks.Crampons, not just microspikes, an ice axe, a helmet, and the training to use them. On the worst days even crampons have not been enough: avoid the slope.
13High wind on an exposed ridgeGusts over about 40 mph knock people off balance and stop rescue helicopters, so a survivable fall becomes fatal.Stay off the trails during significant weather (San Bernardino County Sheriff).

Trails on Mt Baldy

Ski Hut Trail (Baldy Bowl) 4.5 mi from Manker Flat
Devil's Backbone 6.4 mi from Manker Flat
Bear Canyon (Bear Ridge) 6.4 mi from Mt Baldy Village
Icehouse Canyon to Baldy (Three Ts) 12.1 mi from Icehouse Canyon trailhead
Icehouse Canyon 3.6 mi from Icehouse Canyon trailhead

Mt Baldy: questions hikers ask

Is there snow or ice on Mt Baldy right now?

Ice or hard snow likely above about 10,064 ft. On "Ridge to the summit" that means crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them. Without them, turn around below 9,600 ft. Coming up: Strong wind on the mountain, Thu, 11 PM to Fri, 8 AM. Estimate from Wed, Oct 14, 6:07 PM, updated every hour. Each trail section's estimate is on this page.

Is Mt Baldy open for hiking?

We found no Forest Service closure naming Mt Baldy's trails as of Wed, Oct 14, 6:07 PM. Closures can be posted any time, so check the forest's alerts page (https://www.fs.usda.gov/r05/angeles/alerts) before you go. The National Weather Service has an active alert: Red Flag Warning: Red Flag Warning issued October 14 at 3:37PM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA.

What gear do I need for Mt Baldy today?

Today: crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them.

When are conditions on Mt Baldy worst this week?

Today (mountaineering): Ice or hard snow likely above about 10,064 ft. On "Ridge to the summit" that means crampons, ice axe and helmet, and the training to use them. Without them, turn around below 9,600 ft.

How accurate is this Mt Baldy conditions estimate?

It's an estimate from National Weather Service and Open-Meteo forecasts, the shape of the land, and hikers' photos, not someone standing on the trail. A 1 °C error moves the snow line about 500 ft, and shaded gullies stay icy longer than any model shows. If the mountain looks worse than this page, believe the mountain.